A concept built for Mayes-Martin by Cilantric · not your live site · sample data · yours to keep
Mayes-Martin Fuel & Propane · since 1958 · Barrie

Home heating oil · Barrie · Orillia · Midland

Your oil, predicted.

You already give propane customers a tank they never have to think about. This is the same thing for heating oil, driven by the degree-days over their roof and the burn rate we already know. No more will-call phone tag. No more emergency runs at −22. The truck shows up before the gauge does. This is a concept view of what that could look like.

See the prediction Why oil, why now A Cilantric concept · sample account, not real customer data
0
runouts the model didn't see coming
Auto
delivery, same as your propane app
1958
of route knowledge, now forecasting

The prediction, one account at a time

Every oil tank gets the treatment your propane tanks already get.

Sample customer — 909 Concession 4, Oro-Medonte. 910 L tank, no telemetry. The model reads degree-days off the local weather feed, multiplies by this home's measured K-factor, and draws the tank down day by day. It schedules the truck before the tank hits reserve — not after the customer calls cold.

Sample tank · live estimateOn schedule
46%
≈ 419 L remaining
Burn rate today
7.8 L/day at 24 heating degree-days
Reserve trip point
25% · never hits empty
14-day degree-day forecastCold snap Feb 11–13

Colder days burn faster, so the line steepens. The model watches the forecast and moves the delivery up when a snap is coming — it doesn't wait for the calendar.

Projected tank level Auto-delivery Reserve line
Delivery auto-scheduled: Tue Feb 10, before the snap. Tank fills at ~32% — no runout, no premium after-hours run, added to Tuesday's Oro-Medonte route.

Built for the person in the dispatch chair

The dispatcher stops firefighting runouts and starts filling the truck.

This isn't a portal you log into all day. It's a queue that fills itself: the accounts that need oil this week, already sequenced by route, before anyone panics.

A self-writing will-call list

Every oil account the model flags for the next 7 days, sorted so nobody's driving to Midland twice in a week.

Weather is already in it

A cold snap moves deliveries up automatically. The dispatcher sees the change, doesn't have to do the math at 6am.

Fewer emergency runs

The expensive drops are the surprise ones after hours. Predicted delivery turns a panic into a planned stop on tomorrow's route.

K-factor learns each home

Every fill recalibrates that tank's burn. The longer a customer's on it, the tighter the estimate — same as your propane telemetry, minus the hardware.

Fuller trucks, fewer trips

Clustering predicted drops by geography means more litres per shift and fewer half-empty runs across three branches.

No new hire, no new payroll

It rides on the burn history you already have. It's the dispatcher's memory, written down and always awake.

You already proved this works

Propane customers have a tank they never think about. Oil customers don't. Yet.

The propane app, the tank telemetry, the auto-delivery — that was the hard part, and you already shipped it. Oil is the same customer promise reached a different way: forecasting instead of a sensor.

Oil today — the manual way

  • Will-call by phone and email — the customer has to remember to call
  • Levels are a guess: a paper estimate off the last fill date
  • The runouts nobody saw coming become after-hours emergency drops
  • A cold snap catches the route flat-footed
  • 68 years of burn-rate instinct lives in the dispatcher's head

Oil predicted — same promise as propane

  • Auto-delivery scheduled before the tank hits reserve
  • A daily estimate per tank, tuned by that home's real burn
  • Runouts caught days ahead and folded into a planned route
  • Forecast baked in — the snap moves the delivery, not the customer
  • That instinct, written into a model that never forgets a customer

Why this pitch, from someone who's run ops

You came up through that dispatch chair. So did the person building this.

I spent years in IT operations — dispatch, SLAs, field service — so I know where the day goes sideways: it's the surprise call, the emergency run, the thing nobody saw until it was already on fire. I don't sell software and I'm not adding to your payroll. I take route knowledge that already exists and give it a forecasting engine, so the trucks do more drops per shift and dispatch stops chasing runouts.

"Free the dispatcher" isn't a slogan here — it's the whole job. A predicted list beats a panicked phone every single winter.

Want to see this on a real subset of oil accounts?

Pick one route — Barrie, Orillia, or Midland — and we run the model on that book for a season before it touches anything else. Prove-on-one, then scale. Coffee's on me.